Fun in Glasgow North East

The Glasgow North East by-election will be held on Thursday 12 November. It promises to be fun, even, as First Minister Alex Salmond says, "a brammer".

The by-election is the result of the elevation of sitting MP Michael Martin's to the Lords after his resignation as Speaker of the Commons over the expenses scandal.

In 2005, Michael Martin won 53.3% of the vote and a majority of 10,134 over his SNP rival. Glasgow North East should be a safe Labour hold. But will it be?

I love by-elections. General Elections, to use a football analogy, are a bit like league championships. Generally, over the 645 games, the best team wins. Yes, there's the odd dodgy result, injustice or slip up along the way. But, usually, the party with the best leader, the best ideas, the best campaign and the most money wins.

By-elections though are like cup games. Surprises happen. The big teams cannot guarantee a result. The outcome cannot be taken for granted.

Labour, struggling as it is nationally, should still win. In Willie Bain, it has an able candidate with no expenses baggage to hide. While opposition parties have questioned the depth of his "localness", he knows the constituency and appears to be, as they say, a safe pair of hands. How much of a kick back Labour will receive from the expenses scandal remains to be seen.

The SNP, likewise, are fielding a strong candidate. David Kerr is a former BBC journalist. As you would expect, he is media savvy and presents himself well. After winning neighbouring Labour heartland Glasgow East in 2008, the SNP would dearly love to triumph over Labour again.

But, the Scottish Government's decision to abandon support for the Glasgow Airport Rail Link (GARL) cannot help the party's cause. Glasgow is proud of hosting the 2014 Commonwealth games. GARL is seen by Labour controlled Glasgow city council and its articulate leader, Steven Purcell, as central to its success. The city, and this constituency in particular, could do with the jobs GARL would create. Labour are sure to go to town on this issue.

As in Glasgow East 2008, the Conservatives have unearthed a strong female candidate in the shape of Ruth Davidson. The problem is, there's as much chance of the Conservatives winning this seat as nearby Partick Thistle have of winning the Champions League. Last time around, the Tories never even bothered putting up a candidate in Glasgow North East (neither did the Lib Dems or the Greens). But, this is the new, de-toxed, poverty tackling Tories. Glasgow North East won't be on the hit list for the Tories winning the next General Election, but the party won't want a humiliation either. If it saves its deposit, it'll be a result.

The real fun comes in the shape of two Scottish media darlings who are standing; Tommy Sheridan and John Smeaton.

"Smeato" is representing the newly formed "Jury Party", a political party which doesn't believe in, er, political parties. The appeal of The Jury Party is obvious. There is widespread public resentment towards professional politicians, in particular at the lifestyle many of them live at public expense. The appeal of John Smeaton is obvious too. Local Glasgow guy who sorted out the airport terrorists in time honoured Glasgow style.

Smeato's credentials are good, but, I suspect, his chances of election would have been better if he'd stood as a white suited Martin Bell style "clean up politics" campaigner rather than as a candidate of the Jury team. Apart from criticising MPs over their expenses (which everyone is doing anyway), no-one really knows what the Jury Team stands for on a whole range of issues affecting the constituency.

Tommy Sheridan, as always, provides more intrigue. The former Celebrity Big Brother star will, along with his Mrs, be back in the High Court in January. Who needs Celebrity Big Brother when there's the Sheridans Trial! In the meantime, Tommy is standing as a candidate for his Solidarity Party which he formed after leaving the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) after the last court case in 2007. His appeal is, largely, the Tommy Factor. His is asking the voters to elect him on a "try before you buy" basis, before the General Election of 2010.

I don't think Tommy Sheridan or John Smeaton will win. What will be of interest is who they take votes from. The SNP would have hoped, like in Glasgow East 2008, to hoover up all the anti-Labour votes. But, the anti-Labour votes will now go in several directions. Labour itself will be content to retain most of its "core" vote. It can afford to lose several thousand and still win. But, how many of its core vote will take the chance, always offered by by-elections, to give the governing party a punch on the nose?

Tommy Sheridan's chances will also be curtailed by the other socialist parties. Tommy's former comrades, the SSP, are running. The Socialist Labour Party (SLP) are also standing. You may well ask what the actual differences are between any of these parties?

Curiously, the SLP actually finished third in this election back in 2005, beating the SSP quite comfortably. Unlike the SSP, the SLP really has little presence in Scotland. It's performance underlines, at this political level, the effect a party's name has. Everyone knows who Tommy Sheridan is. The SSP and the SLP would, in their heart of hearts, settle for beating Tommy, but his brand recognition will see him win this particular battle of the smaller parties.

The Greens and the Lib Dems are, of course putting up candidates, this time. They will do their best to get whatever votes they can, but I suspect the cheque for their lost deposits has already been written. Glasgow North East is not fertile territory for environmental politics or liberalism. Perhaps it should be. But its not.

So, my prediction is, with 12 days to go, a Labour win, albeit with a reduced majority. Labour will settle for this. To return to football-speak, its all about the result. It won't be pretty and it won't be spectacular, but Labour will pick up a much needed three points at home.

PS, Just for a laugh, my wider prediction. 1 Labour, 2 SNP, 3 Solidarity, 4 Jury Party, 5 SSP, 6 SLP, 7 Conservatives, 8 Lib Dems, 9 Greens, 10 Others.