Will The Sun swing It?

So, The Sun (English version) has abandoned Labour and will support the Conservatives at the 2010 General Election.

The, er, Scottish Sun, hasn't made it's mind up yet. This may have something to with the fact the Conservatives in Scotland constitute around 13% of Scottish voters.

How many of this minority actually read The Sun can only be speculated. I'd guess that the hardy band of elderly Scottish Conservatives who make up the Tories core vote in Scotland these days would risk a heart attack reading The Sun. The Sunday Post it ain't.

England is different. Gordon Brown's Labour Party has trailed David Cameron's Conservatives by at least 10% in the polls for over two years. A poll today put the gap at 17%, more than enough to give the Tories a Commons majority.

So, will it be The Sun that swung it? Hardly. The Sun is just gambling that, on the basis of two years of opinion poll evidence, Cameron will win and that it, in its self appointed status as conscience of the nation, is in touch with the normal, hard working citizen.

Labour is doing its best to say that its not bovvered. Aye right. So, why did Tony Blair make getting Rupert Murdoch on board one of his priorities? Why has David Cameron appointed Andy Coulson, former editor of News of the World, his Director of Planning and Communications?

Its not because The Sun, or the News of the World, will swing it. Its because the support of the biggest selling newspapers in the UK (what a thought) helps seal the deal.

It lowers Labour morale. The decision to support the Tories was released the night of Gordon Brown's speech at the Labour Party conference. There was a big front page splash and a pull out poster, (probably written about six months previously) on Labour's "broken promises".

The Sun's switch won't make white van drivers start quoting Tory election commitments on their tea breaks (are there any?).

But it will add to the momentum the Tories already have that this time is their time. It may well be. In fact, it probably is, unless Labour ditches Gordon Brown.

But, IMHO, it wasn't The Sun what swung it. The Tories wisened up, got a smart, telegenic leader and cleaned up their image. Post Iraq war Blair's Labour alienated its core voters and post-Brown Labour has scunnered the floating voters in marginal constituencies, who really decide the election, with its lack of conviction and drive.

The Sun is simply jumping on the bandwagon again.